If you are waiting for mortgage rates to fall back to 6 percent before you buy a home in Greater Houston, the forecasts say you may be waiting a long time. The 30 year fixed rate was 7.18 percent on November 5, 2026, according to Freddie Mac, and Fannie Mae’s October 2026 forecast has the 30 year rate averaging 7.5 percent through 2027. Buying now, at a price and payment you can afford, is a stronger plan than waiting for a rate that forecasters do not see coming.
Watch on YouTube: Buying a Home With High Interest Rates? Why Now Could Work
In this video, Justin Duffield explains why waiting for mortgage rates to drop may cost more than buying now in Greater Houston. With the 30-year rate at 7.18% and forecasters expecting it to stay near 7.5% through 2027, while Houston home prices stay flat, first-time buyers without a home to sell or a lease holding them back may have room to negotiate with motivated sellers today.
Rates have come down from their October peak, but they are still about a full point above a year ago. Home prices in Houston are flat, not falling. Waiting a year could mean a similar price, a similar rate, and a year of rent with nothing to show for it.
What are mortgage rates right now?
Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey, released November 5, 2026, put the 30 year fixed rate at 7.18 percent, down from 7.24 percent the prior week and down from 7.40 percent in mid October. It was the third straight weekly decline. A year ago, the 30 year rate was 6.22 percent. The 15 year fixed rate was 6.57 percent, down from 6.60 percent the prior week and up from 5.50 percent a year ago.
This survey covers conventional, conforming, fully amortizing purchase loans for borrowers who put 20 percent down and have excellent credit. It is a national benchmark, not a quote. Your rate will depend on your credit, your down payment, your loan type, and your lender.
In September 2026, the average 30 year rate in Houston was 6.86 percent, according to HAR, citing Freddie Mac, compared with 6.35 percent a year earlier. A median priced Houston buyer with 20 percent down paid $1,705.41 a month in principal and interest in September, according to a secondary summary of the HAR September update. Treat that payment as a guide, not a quote for your loan.
What do forecasters expect in 2027?
Fannie Mae’s October 2026 forecast, as reported, has the 30 year rate averaging 7.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2026 and 7.5 percent in every quarter of 2027, up from 6.8 percent and 6.7 percent in its September forecast. Fannie Mae also forecasts home price growth of 2.7 percent in 2026 and only 0.6 percent in 2027.
Note: these Fannie Mae figures come from reporting on the forecast, not from the Fannie Mae forecast document itself. Treat them as reported forecasts, not as a guarantee. The Mortgage Bankers Association October forecast is only slightly lower, at about 7.3 percent at the end of 2026, then 7.2 percent and 7.1 percent late in 2027. Neither forecaster expects a rate below 7 percent before the end of 2027.
How do I decide whether to buy now?
Ask three questions. First, can you afford the payment today at today’s rate, with taxes and insurance included? Second, do you plan to stay in the home at least a few years? Third, have you found a home and a neighborhood that fit your life in Sugar Land, Katy, Missouri City, Richmond, or Fulshear?
If the answer to all three is yes, waiting for a lower rate is a bet, not a plan. Ask your lender for your payment today, your payment if the rate fell by half a point, and your payment if the price rose even a little. Then add the rent you would pay while you wait. The savings from a small rate drop are often smaller than buyers expect, and they disappear if the price rises or if you pay another year of rent. If rates do fall later, you can refinance. You cannot get back the year you spent waiting.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the 30 year mortgage rate today in Houston?
The national benchmark was 7.18 percent on November 5, 2026, according to Freddie Mac. Your rate will differ based on credit, down payment, loan type, and lender. Get a quote from a lender for your situation.
Will mortgage rates drop below 7 percent in 2027?
Forecasters do not expect it. Fannie Mae’s October 2026 forecast, as reported, has the 30 year rate at 7.5 percent through 2027. The Mortgage Bankers Association forecast is only slightly lower, at about 7.1 percent late in 2027. Forecasts change, so check the latest forecast before you decide.
Should I wait for home prices to fall in Houston instead?
Houston prices are flat, not falling. The HAR September 2026 median single family price in Greater Houston was $325,000, essentially steady from a year earlier. Waiting for a price drop that forecasters do not expect is the same bet as waiting for a rate drop.
Educational information only. This post is not legal, tax, lending, or insurance advice. Mortgage rates, program details, and market conditions change frequently. Verify current rates, program details, and your flood zone status with a licensed lender, tax professional, or insurance professional before you decide.
About the author: Justin Duffield is a Realtor with J. David Properties, Keller Williams Realty Southwest, in Sugar Land, Texas. He has more than 21 years in real estate, has helped more than 400 families buy and sell, and is a Top 10% producing agent in Fort Bend and Harris Counties for more than 11 consecutive years.
Talk with Justin: Justin Duffield, J. David Properties, (832) 771-8700, justin@jdavidproperties.com, jdavidproperties.com. Let your needs be our priority.
Sources: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, November 5, 2026, via GlobeNewswire; Fannie Mae October 2026 forecast, as reported; HAR September 2026 Housing Market Update.